Media Coverage

The Buffalo News reported that a UB model of Western New York hospitalizations due to COVID-19 shows that even the current low rate of vaccinations is beginning to blunt the effect of the virus. The front-page story noted that Peter Winkelstein, MD, executive director of UB’s Institute for Healthcare Informatics and clinical professor of pediatrics, who led the team that developed the model, was “surprised,” by how quickly the impact of the vaccine rollout showed up in local metrics.

WGRZ reported that COVID-19 models developed by a UB team led by Peter Winkelstein, MD, executive director of UB’s Institute for Healthcare Informatics and clinical professor of pediatrics, have found that even at the current low rate, vaccinations are beginning to benefit Western New York. Winkelstein said: "The bad news is, yes, the variant is going to affect us. The good news is, the vaccines are going to blunt that effect and are really working for us.”

Western New York is already benefiting from COVID-19 vaccinations, according to new models developed by University at Buffalo data scientists. “I was surprised that the vaccine effect shows up so quickly in our models,” says Peter Winkelstein, MD, executive director of UB’s Institute for Healthcare Informatics and clinical professor of pediatrics. He leads the team that has been modeling the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus since the start of the pandemic. While experts have warned it could take longer than a year to vaccinate most people in Western New York, Winkelstein said there are factors to consider. “Even though some estimates say it’ll take 15 months to vaccinate everybody, that’s not the critical number,” he says. “The question is, how many people need to be vaccinated in order to have an effect on spread in the community?”

Should we feel optimistic about the coming months of the COVID-19 pandemic because positive tests and hospitalizations are declining and more people are getting the vaccine every day? Or should we be pessimistic because dangerous, easily transmissible variants of the virus are spreading around the globe and into New York? “I think I am a glass-half-full person,” says Manoj J. Mammen, MD, associate professor of medicine. Still, he adds: “We haven’t won the war yet. We’ll still have to struggle in the coming months.” Peter Winkelstein, MD, clinical professor of pediatrics and executive director of UB’s Institute for Healthcare Informatics, leads a team that models COVID-19 hospitalizations in Erie County. If vaccinations can reach 5,000 or more doses delivered per day, the number of hospital patients could fall to almost zero within two months, assuming variants do not take hold. “We don't have to wait for everybody to be immunized before we see an effect from the vaccine,” Winkelstein says.

Two cases of the U.K. variant of COVID-19 have been found in Erie County. In a previous interview with WKBW, Thomas A. Russo, MD, professor of medicine and chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases, said the data shows it does not cause more severe symptoms at this point. “Presently, the data does support that it does not cause a more severe disease, which is obviously good news,” said Russo. Erie County’s health commissioner, Gale R. Burstein, MD, who is a clinical professor of pediatrics, notes: “Because it’s a more aggressive strain we can expect to see more of these cases.” Burstein says the vaccine will help prevent transmission of this virus.

The Western New York region and Erie County continue to see steady declines in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 and the number of people being hospitalized with the virus, but the identification of a more infectious U.K. variant of the coronavirus in Erie County presents a new worry. “Because it is a more transmittable strain, it is a more aggressive strain, until we see more people in the community that are immunized, we’re going to expect to see more of these cases,” says Erie County’s health commissioner Gale R. Burstein, MD, who is a clinical professor of pediatrics. The good news is that individuals who are immunized with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines are protected against this virus strain. In addition, those who have contracted COVID-19 and recovered also gain natural immunity against the U.K. variant, says Thomas A. Russo, MD, professor of medicine and chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases. “If we’re going to have a U.K. variant, this is the best variant to have,” Russo notes.

Both of the COVID-19 vaccines currently on the market call for two separate doses, staggered three or four weeks apart. In Western New York, however — as in regions throughout the country — vaccinators are dealing with a tricky setback: Some people have avoided receiving their second shots. “We’re very concerned,” says Nancy H. Nielsen MD, PhD, senior associate dean for health policy and an adviser to the Western New York Vaccine Hub. “As long as the vaccine remains scarce, and the longer we go, the more we think this is going to accelerate … don’t refuse a second dose that is going to keep you out of the hospital,” she urges. Gale R. Burstein, MD, Erie County commissioner of health and a clinical professor of pediatrics, notes: “We’ve invested so much into getting this vaccination program off the ground. If people don’t fully take advantage of it, that really wastes resources.”

Although some viruses can offer protection against viruses in the same family, it’s not always the case, according to a story that quotes Mark D. Hicar, MD, PhD, associate professor of pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases. “Sometimes they are not very protective,” he said. “For example, for influenza strains from year to year, although there are enough differences to support changing the specific strains in the vaccine, studies show that a history of prior immunizations offers some protection on its own.” He also points out that antibodies from people infected with SARS can "neutralize" the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

WGRZ-TV announced that Stephen J. Turkovich, MD, clinical assistant professor of pediatrics and chief medical officer at Oishei Children’s Hospital, will give a talk for parents of children with developmental disabilities on the television station.

Several Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences research projects are profiled in a story that looks at medical research projects conducted during the global COVID-19 pandemic. Among the faculty members mentioned are Teresa Quattrin, MD, UB Distinguished Professor of pediatrics; M. Jeffery Mador, PhD, associate professor of medicine in the Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine; Robert A. Fenstermaker, MD, director of neurosurgical oncology in the Department of Neurosurgery; and Nikhil Satchidanand, PhD, assistant professor of medicine.

The Buffalo News published a special report on WNY health care and health research during the past year, which focused on the pandemic as well as many other areas. The online portion of the report features a video with Teresa Quattrin, MD, UB Distinguished Professor of pediatrics, discussing her study published recently in the New England Journal of Medicine that found that an existing drug called golimumab can help maintain insulin production in newly diagnosed children and young adults with Type 1 diabetes.

More than 5 million New Yorkers became eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine in early January. The vaccine-eligible people have been able to make appointments to get inoculated since Jan. 11. But limited vaccine supply means many will be waiting for some time. Gale R. Burstein, MD, clinical professor of pediatrics and commissioner of the Erie County Department of Health, has said state officials have told county governments to focus on vaccinating essential workers — and they could face penalties if they attempt to vaccinate other individuals not on that list.

The Buffalo Bills will be hosting a home playoff game for the first time in 24 years. Erie County’s health commissioner, Gale R. Burstein, MD, who is a clinical professor of pediatrics, says she hopes people will remain safe while watching the game. “Hopefully the Bills will continue doing well and we’ll be able to continue watching the games. But we just have to remember to keep it small size – stay with people in your family,” she advises. Household gatherings are the single largest identifiable source for the spread of the virus, based on contact-tracing data released by the state late last year. That primarily stems from people getting together with those outside their households, particularly if it is indoors and the use of face coverings is inconsistent, says Thomas A. Russo, MD, professor of medicine and chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases.

Gale R. Burstein, MD, clinical professor of pediatrics and commissioner of the Erie County Department of Health, was quoted in a story that reported that since receiving its initial vaccine shipment from Pfizer, New York State has designated a series of hospitals and hospital systems, including the Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, to develop plans for local vaccine allocation and distribution. Burstein said the county is working to train enough staff to administer it.

Prevention interviewed Mark D. Hicar, MD, PhD, associate professor of pediatrics in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, about how many people actually die from the flu each year. It’s difficult to compare flu deaths with those of COVID-19, which are actual documented deaths, says Hicar. In fact, COVID-19 deaths are being tracked by confirmed cases, “but there are still going to be numbers of unconfirmed cases so the deaths from COVID-19 are probably higher than what is being reported,” Hicar says. The article also appeared on other outlets.